Lake Washington School District Enrollment Forecasting

Since 2019, FLO has prepared student enrollment forecasts for the Lake Washington School District (LWSD), the second-largest school district in King County. LWSD first sought assistance in the fall of 2019, as their typical and high two percent annual enrollment growth unexpectedly rose to four percent amid a sustained period of rapid housing development. In early 2020, FLO presented ten-year enrollment forecasts to LWSD’s Facility Advisory Committee, a 60+ member committee charged with making recommendations to the superintendent and school board for future facility planning. 

After the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted public education across the country beginning in March 2020, LWSD enrollment dropped sharply in fall 2020. Enrollment declined again in fall 2021 as FLO started its most recent forecasting analysis, despite continued housing growth. Closely tracking regional, state, and national trends in public school enrollment and population migration patterns, FLO continuously evaluated and refined its forecasting assumptions. 

The most recent project for LWSD included a student enrollment assessment that integrated LWSD’s student information system data, school locations, and attendance-area boundaries into FLO’s systems for analysis and visualization. FLO also completed a demographic and land use analysis of residential development, birth rates, and population trends. Using the student enrollment assessment and the population and land use analysis information, FLO created annual student enrollment forecasts for the ten-year period from 2022–23 to 2031–32. The forecasts helped LWSD determine where student growth would be expected in the next ten years, identify which schools would be under, at, or over capacity, and continue to provide expert analysis and information to the public during this time of uncertainty. 

Despite the challenging conditions (i.e., rapid population growth, COVID-19 impacts, and enrollment fluctuation), FLO has provided ten-year student enrollment forecasts to LWSD for the last three years. While each forecast presented its unique hurdle, FLO delivered on time and on budget, allowing LWSD to incorporate the forecasts into its annual budgeting process. FLO provided final student enrollment forecast results by the end of January, allowing their consideration in annual budgeting for the following school year.